Finland’s Stubb Advocates for Robust Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, recently asserted that security guarantees for Ukraine, currently under discussion by a “coalition of the willing,” would require European countries to take military action if Russia were to initiate aggression against Ukraine again in the future.

Deterrence Through Strength

“Security guarantees inherently serve as a deterrent,” Stubb explained in an interview in Helsinki, prior to his trip to New York for the UN General Assembly. He emphasized that for these guarantees to be effective, they must be both strong and plausible.

Independent Decisions

These guarantees will come into play only after a future agreement between Ukraine and Russia, but Stubb firmly stated that Russia should have no say in how these guarantees are structured. “Russia has no authority over the sovereign decisions of an independent nation state,” he remarked.

International Commitment

At a recent meeting in Paris, French president Emmanuel Macron announced that 26 nations had joined a “reassurance force” for Ukraine, with some committing to be present on the ground, in the sea, or in the air.

Calls for Concrete Commitment

The primary concern for many in Kyiv is whether these arrangements include concrete commitments. When questioned if these guarantees translate to European nations being prepared to engage militarily with Russia if aggression occurs, Stubb confirmed, “That is the essence of security guarantees.”

Political Will in Question

Despite Stubb’s assurances, the political will for such commitments remains ambiguous in many European capitals. Historically, Western promises to support Ukraine have been more about reassurance than firm commitments, aiming to assist Ukraine while avoiding direct conflict with Russia. Stubb warned that guarantees are meaningless without real backing.

Finland’s Role in Negotiations

Stubb has played a key role in peace negotiations recently, fostering a strong alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump. Finland has leveraged its size to maintain significant communications between Trump and European leaders.

Assessing Progress and Challenges

Stubb acknowledged that progress has been slow and emphasized the importance of striving to engage with the Trump administration, despite uncertainties about the U.S. commitment. He also mentioned meeting Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and feels optimistic about Ukraine’s endurance in the prolonged conflict.

Looking Ahead

This week, Stubb aims to focus discussions on Ukraine at the UN, reiterating that an “American backstop” is crucial for the effectiveness of security guarantees. However, without tangible steps toward a negotiated peace, these guarantees may remain theoretical. Both Zelenskyy and Putin must explore avenues for dialogue, yet significant obstacles remain.

Conclusion

As tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate, President Stubb’s push for strong security guarantees reflects a growing urgency among European leaders to prepare for potential conflicts. The success of these strategies will largely depend on the willingness of major powers to engage meaningfully in the diplomatic process.

Published: 2025-09-20 15:00:00 | Source: www.theguardian.com