The Lessons Learned from 22 Group of 5 Upsets Since 2005

In the world of college football, upsets are a thrilling aspect that keeps fans on the edge of their seats. Over the years, teams from the Group of 5 (G5) conferences have proven that they can compete with, and even defeat, teams from the Power 5 conferences. Since 2005, there have been 22 notable upsets where G5 teams, often viewed as underdogs, have triumphed over their more prestigious counterparts. Analyzing these games reveals several key strategies and patterns that can help explain how these victories occurred.

Understanding the Landscape of College Football

The college football landscape is divided into two primary segments: the Power 5 conferences, which include the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC, and the Group of 5 conferences, which encompass schools from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, and Sun Belt Conference. Each season, approximately 110 matchups occur between these two groups, with G5 teams typically winning around 20 games against Power 5 opponents.

As of early 2025, nine victories by G5 teams have already been recorded, showcasing the ongoing potential for surprises in college football.

Key Strategies for G5 Upsets

After examining the box scores and game summaries of these 22 upsets, several recurring themes emerge that illustrate how G5 teams have managed to pull off these remarkable victories.

1. Field Goals vs. Touchdowns

One of the most significant factors in these upsets is the ability of G5 teams to convert scoring opportunities into touchdowns rather than field goals. In many of these games, the Power 5 teams often moved the ball effectively but struggled in the red zone, settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.

For instance, in the 2007 game where UL Monroe defeated Alabama, the Warhawks scored three touchdowns on three red zone trips, while Alabama failed to score on three of their five red zone attempts. This trend has been consistent across many of the upsets, where G5 teams have a higher touchdown rate in the red zone compared to their Power 5 opponents.

2. Dominating Third Downs

Another critical aspect of these upsets is the ability of G5 teams to excel on third downs. While Power 5 teams may win first and second downs, underdogs have often outperformed them on third down conversions.

For example, in the 2023 upset of Baylor by Texas State, the Bobcats converted all four of their fourth-down attempts, showcasing their ability to keep drives alive when it mattered most. This pattern holds true across many games, where G5 teams have managed to convert on crucial third downs, allowing them to maintain possession and score.

3. Big Plays Matter

Successful G5 teams have often made the most of their opportunities by executing big plays. In the memorable 2022 game where Middle Tennessee defeated Miami, the Blue Raiders scored on several long passes, including a 98-yard completion. These explosive plays not only shifted momentum but also provided easy points, making a significant difference in the final score.

Statistics show that G5 teams have a higher percentage of plays gaining 20 or more yards compared to their Power 5 counterparts, underscoring the importance of making big plays in crucial moments.

4. Fourth Down Conversions

Fourth downs have become a critical battleground in college football, and G5 teams have often embraced a more aggressive approach. Many successful underdogs have gone for it on fourth down more frequently than their Power 5 opponents, leading to crucial conversions that can change the course of a game.

For instance, in the 2012 game where UL Monroe overcame Arkansas, the Warhawks converted six of their twelve fourth-down attempts, demonstrating their willingness to take risks and capitalize on opportunities.

5. Turnover Margins

Finally, the importance of winning the turnover battle cannot be overstated. Successful G5 teams often have a positive turnover margin, which can significantly impact the outcome of a game. Many of the upsets analyzed featured underdogs that not only forced turnovers but also capitalized on them effectively, turning potential scoring opportunities for their opponents into points for themselves.

Conclusion

The script for a successful upset in college football often involves a combination of scoring touchdowns instead of field goals, excelling on third downs, making big plays, converting fourth downs, and winning the turnover battle. While these strategies do not guarantee victory, they certainly enhance the chances of pulling off a monumental upset. As college football continues to evolve, the lessons learned from these 22 Group of 5 upsets since 2005 provide valuable insights for teams looking to challenge the status quo.

Key Facts

– There have been 22 significant upsets by Group of 5 teams against Power 5 teams since 2005.
– G5 teams often score touchdowns more effectively in the red zone compared to Power 5 teams.
– G5 teams have shown superior performance on third and fourth downs in many upset victories.
– Successful G5 teams frequently rely on big plays to shift momentum and score points.
– Winning the turnover battle has proven crucial for G5 teams in achieving upset victories.

Source: www.espn.com